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Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions
Ebook Download Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions
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Audible Audiobook
Listening Length: 7 hours and 22 minutes
Program Type: Audiobook
Version: Unabridged
Publisher: HarperAudio
Audible.com Release Date: February 19, 2008
Language: English, English
ASIN: B0014EAHNQ
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
Anyone who believes that humans are rational cost-benefit calculators, as per the economics perspective on human decision-making, needs to read this book. It adds to a recent body of literature, including Gigerenzer's "Gut Feelings," Fine's "A Mind of Its Own," Tavris and Aronson's "Mistakes Were Made (But not by Me"), and Gladwell's "Blink." So, this book, per se, does not really break new ground. However, it does make a contribution to the larger discussion. And much is at stake here, whether in terms of political decision-making (after all, our elected leaders are just like the rest of us in how we think) or daily decisions about what products to buy.The book addresses what the author refers to as one view of human nature (Page xix), "the rational economic model. . . " (For a simple discussion of expectations from the economics view of human nature, see the discussion on pages 64-65). In contrast, this book takes a different--and far more accurate view--of human nature. Dan Ariely says that (Page xix): ". . .this book is about human irrationality--about our distance from perfection." To the extent that government policy and the economic sphere accept the standard view of human rationality, they are basing decisions on an erroneous view of human nature. Will swift and certain punishment deter crime? If people are rational economic calculators, yes. If not? Forget about it. It's phony baloney. That's what is at stake with this book.The book covers a number of relevant topics as to how humans make decisions. We overweigh negative consequences, we make foolish decisions based on whether or not something is labeled as "free," social norms will often trump cost-benefit calculations, how anchoring of choices skews our decision-making, and so on. One of the nice features of this book is the outlining of various experiments that the author and his colleagues have carried out.He concludes that (Page 243): ". . .we are pawns in a game whose forces we largely fail to comprehend." A second lesson? Understand that key point and learn how to make decisions given our departure from the rational decision-making orientation. As the author says (Page 244): "Once we understand when and where we may make erroneous decisions, we can try to be more vigilant, force ourselves to think differently about those decisions, or use technology to overcome our inherent shortcomings."In one sense, being critical of how we make decisions is a bit wrongheaded. That's how people are. Shortcomings? Sure, but that's where we are and that's who we are. And, as Gigerenzer suggests, our flawed decision-making may actually, through the long evolutionary history of our species, do as well or better than economic models of decision-making. So, this is another useful work raising questions about the nature of human nature--and making us more human in the process.
Among the various books available that cover the topic of human behavior, Predictably Irrational is among the top ten (interested readers should also read Sway by Rom Brafman). It's not quite an economics book (for a much better analysis of the many failings of neoclassical economics, read Debunking Economics by Keen) and it's not quite a behavioral psychology book (read Sway) so it falls somewhere in the middle - and therein lies its main weakness.There are some very interesting anecdotes (for example, do you know why we think black pearls are valuable when originally no one wanted to buy them at any price?) and these are where most of the book's value lies.The principal weakness comes from Ariely's conclusions based on the work he's carried out. He acknowledges that we humans are "irrational" compared to the straw man of the "rational optimizer" beloved of neoclassical economic theory, but while some of his examples are interesting he fails to see the entire picture. Thus whereas Keen shows that the neoclassical model is computationally impossible, Ariely merely shows that we have different decision-making processes in two distinct contexts: interpersonal and financial. This is valid, but Ariely then goes on to show that he hasn't really explored the interpersonal context with any degree of rigor.A couple of examples will illustrate what I mean. In the first example Ariely talks about how companies strive to create a "social exchange" in the workplace because people generally work harder and more diligently in social exchange settings than in compensation-based settings. We can think of how we might keep on struggling to get a friend's piano up the stairs of a narrow apartment building long after we'd have given up if we were simply being paid $10 per hour by a stranger to perform the same task. So Ariely notes that companies try to exploit our social side in order to get more work out of us (he doesn't look at the ethics of this attempt, or even at its many infeasibilities). Then he suggests that in order to reinforce the social dynamic and avoid corrupting it with the financial dynamic (because it's not possible to combine the two) companies should not give bonuses but instead should send employees off on a paid-for vacation. The problem, of course, is that most employees don't want to be placed in a parent-child relationship. Most employees think of themselves as independent adults. Saying "here's a vacation we've arranged for you" violates an employee's independence. Worse still it assumes the employee's plans for their free time are irrelevant (the cost of leaving one's home, family, and friends for the duration of the enforced vacation are apparently zero where the company is concerned...). Obviously this recommendation would be disastrous under real-world conditions and one wonders how Ariely failed to think through his proposal.A second example of this failure to think things through comes with Ariely's analysis of cap-and-trade. Rightly he points out that when you set a price on something (in this case pollution) then people may elect to pay more in order to get more. Just as we might only take a single candy from a tray being passed around the group but might buy ten if the candies are being sold, so too might companies pollute less if pollution were a "social good" rather than a priced good. With cap-and-trade companies might simply elect to pay more in order to feel free to pollute more. So Ariely proposes making pollution a "social good." But again a moment's thought shows this to be absurd. Not only do we have far too many examples of companies being quite happy to pollute when it's a cost-free exercise, Ariely's own book shows that executives will ignore social factors when their focus in on financial rewards. As executives are almost exclusively motivated by fat financial rewards, the notion that they would take social norms into account when deciding whether or not (or how much) to pollute is like saying that investment bankers would put the needs of their clients and the financial system in general ahead of their own desire for the $100 million bonus they get from pushing CDOs onto unsuspecting dupes.So in the end the book is worth reading for its anecdotal value but not for Ariely's own conclusions or policy suggestions. He's not-quite an economist and not-quite a behavioral psychologist and ultimately that means he's not-quite useful as a guide to policy formulation on either the micro or the macro scales.
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